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The Global Slowdown and its Impact on Asia
| Speaker : |
Christopher Nailer Director,
Advisory Services / Regional Economist The
Economist Conferences |
| Date: |
28 March 2001 (Wednesday) |
| Time: |
6.15pm - 8.15pm |
| Venue: |
Lecture Theatre 18, Faculty
of Business Administration, NUS |
Abstract
The world economy has slowed dramatically. The Economist
Intelligence Unit (EIU) now estimates that world
growth will slow to 2.3% in 2001, after growing
by 4.3% in 2000. This is the slowest growth since
1998. The US economy is experiencing a hard landing
and will be close to recession in the first half
of this year. The Japanese economy is also weakening
drastically as a deteriorating domestic economy
interacts with a slowdown in its key export markets.
And the euro zone is not immune to the impact of
a weaker global environment. Within developing Asia,
this will cut growth by two thirds, compared to
rates seen last year. However, there are reasons
to believe the effects in this part of the world
might be shortlived. The region has none of the
rigidities that existed in 1997. After three years
of declining investment, much of the excess capacity
has been taken up. And the electronics downturn,
which is presently having particularly severe effects
on Asia, is likely to be shortlived. However, the
loss of export drive will force the region's economies
to rely on purely domestic sources of growth. This
time, the highly export-driven economies suffer,
while those that have less dependence on exports
hold up better. Under these circumstances, significant
shifts take place in competitiveness across the
region. Cost shifts, skills availability and the
preparedness of governments to embrace open, market-oriented
reform now determine the relative attractiveness
of different countries as places to invest. China
increasingly emerges, not only as a huge market
and a low cost production platform, but also as
a significant potential source of skills. China
continues to take the lion's share of FDI into developing
Asia. These changing patterns of relative competitiveness
create a highly dynamic and unpredictable environment
for businesses. About the Speaker
Christopher is responsible for analysing the regional
economies and business environment and advising
Singapore-based members of the Singapore Regional
Managers' Club and the South East Asia Business
Group on emerging developments. Mr. Nailer holds
the dual role of Director, Advisory Services and
Regional Economist for The Economist Conferences.
He advises multinationals and larger regional companies
on strategies for long-term business development
in emerging Asian markets. Mr. Nailer joined The
Economist Conferences from International Market
Assessment (IMA/EIU) Australia, where he was previously
consulting director. During three years at IMA he
was responsible for the company's Asian consulting
and research practice, advising companies on Asian
markets and conducting research assignments in Southeast
Asia, China, Japan, Korea and Indochina. Projects
included market analysis and forecasting, competitor
analysis and strategy development in sectors such
as construction, personal computers, telecommunications,
food packaging, transportation, consumer products
and public sector services. Prior to joining EIU,
he worked on client projects with two other consulting
companies and managed the production of bilingual
computer documentation for Fujitsu Australia. He
has recently written the international management
chapter of Effective Management published by CCH
Australia, co-authored Finding the Right Market
in Asia, published by IMA Pty Ltd in Melbourne and
the international business section of CCH Australia's
Management Manual. Christopher holds a Masters Degree
in Asian Studies from the University of Melbourne
and an MBA Degree from the Australian Graduate School
of Management in the University of New South Wales.
He is proficient in Mandarin and Japanese.
We are pleased to invite you and your colleagues
to attend the talk. As there are limited number
of seats available, please register for the talk
via email to
Joanne
(cmtsimbh@nus.edu.sg)
with your name, designation and company/institution
(and email add if via fax),
by 27 March 2001. Please forward this invitation
to your friends and colleagues who may be interested.
Admission is free |
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