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Research |
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Development of a Spatial Eco-health Framework to Identify Indicators Associated with Emerging Infections Disease Risk |
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Listen to what the team aims and expects of their research project
 Brett Richard Ellis |
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Abstract
South East Asia is predicted to be a region where zoonotic and vector-borne emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) arise. These pathogens impact public health and can trigger major economic losses. Environmental changes, such as deforestation and urbanization, increase human contact with nature. Recent outbreaks of plague, Nipah encephalitis virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and H1N1 influenza in SE Asia demonstrate the importance of an integrated disease management program, including elements of prediction, active surveillance, and intervention. Understanding where disease emergence occurs and what variables are associated with it enables public health networks to proactively respond and use their resources efficaciously. As disease emergence is a complex occurrence, our proposal is interdisciplinary, combining field and laboratory research with epidemiology and niche modeling.
First, we will identify EID indicator pathogens, hosts, and vector species that are associated with human-natural interfaces. This objective entails sampling numerous vertebrates and invertebrates for the presence of pathogens across forest-ecotone-urban settings. Targeting known animal reservoirs and established invertebrate vectors will demonstrate which are important for pathogen carriage and transmission in Singapore.
Our second objective will assess the distribution of indicator species and pathogens. Data will be mapped and stratified by habitat type. Indicator species and the presence of pathogens will be evaluated to determine if there are statistically significant spatial and temporal clusters.
The final objective is to create a spatial ecohealth framework to identify indicators associated with emerging infectious disease risk. Field data will be mapped into several GIS layers, including precipitation, temperature, and historical vector data. Combined datasets will be modeled to predict pathogen presence across Singapore and across SE Asia to predict introduced or yet unknown pathogen presence. These risk maps are anticipated to identify the key variables in infectious disease emergence, impact policy, and guide surveillance and control efforts. |
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Team Members |
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Duane J Gubler
Professor & Director
Emerging Infectious Diseases, Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School,
National University of Singapore
Singapore |
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Brett Richard Ellis
Head, Entomology Section
Emerging Infectious Disease Program
Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School
Singapore |
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Richard T Corlett
Professor
Department of Biological Sciences, Science, NUS
Singapore |
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Ian H Mendenhall
Research Fellow
Program in Emerging Infectious Diseases,
Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School
Singapore |
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Andrew A Lover
Research Associate (Co-appointment)
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health
Singapore |
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Benjamin Paul Lee Yi-Hann
Assistant Director (Nature Parks)
Parks Division, National Parks Board
Singapore |
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