EDM2 – Scenario Analysis & Risk Decision-Making Through Advanced Risk Modelling & Simulation with Excel

Synopsis

The workshop is designed for people whose job involve making important decisions and hence are concerned with the challenge of making those decisions in a very volatile and complex business environment and need to understand how risk will influence their ability to deliver positive results and be successful in their organizations.

Each time they make a decision, they are confronted with uncertainty about how and what decision to make and what will be the outcome. Given insufficient information and severe time constraints, managers often end up relying on basic analysis and intuition. Hence they wish to learn practical and yet effective tools to develop decision making skills that are vital for making sound decisions and hence obtaining better results.

This workshop improves your performance as a decision maker through systematic approaches and decision making tools that will dramatically improve your personal effectiveness and the productivity of your organizations in managing uncertainty. We will teach you how to visualize and quantify risk and uncertainty effectively thanks to powerful simulations that you will learn to develop from scratch on excel spreadsheets.

Seminar Outline

• Theory of Decision making under uncertainty
• Types of organizational decision making systems
• Types of tools for decision making
• Decision trees, fault trees and event trees
• Scenario analysis and Simulation modeling to map the future
• Design influences diagrams and system thinking models for and problems solving
• Understanding the use of game theory
• How to develop Sensitivity Analysis and Monte Carlo simulation models
• And more.